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Dave's Thoughts on Investing

from daveramsey.com on 15 Jul 2009

Everyone's talking about investing in single stocks, bonds, fixed annuities—and especially gold, all because mutual funds aren't performing as well as they have been.

Remember that just because something is all the rage doesn't mean it's good.

One of the best investing rules to remember is to only invest in something that has a good long-term track record. Who cares how much money you earn in interest in one year! Focus on the 20- or 50-year track record. Gold's long-term track record is crummy—the average lifetime annual growth of gold is only 2.14%. All of the money made by investing in gold has been since 2001.

In Jeremy Siegel's book Stocks for the Long Run, he reveals what would have happened to a single dollar invested in bonds, stocks and gold since 1801:

One dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would yield $13,975 today.
One dollar invested in stocks in 1801 would be worth $8.8 million today.
One dollar invested in gold in 1801 would be worth $14 today.

"In times of financial stress, in times of inflation, when there is fear for the [currency], gold does well," Siegel said. "Once the fears are past, gold goes back down." Why would you want to buy it at its peak price?

Many people think if the stock market collapses, we will use gold to buy things and survive. This is insane! Remember the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. People bartered with essential commodities. They could not have cared less about gold.

Gold is a volatile, precious metal—it's flighty and can fluctuate sharply. You're much better off owning mutual funds and paid-for real estate. If you are beyond Baby Step 3 and want some gold, just save up and buy yourself a gold watch!

Just because we're in a bear market doesn't mean the stock market is on its way to collapsing! In order for the stock market to crash, companies like Microsoft, Ford, GM, Home Depot, GE and Whirlpool have to close their doors for good. Can you honestly imagine all of those companies closing? Our stock market operates differently now than in 1929; there are many more safeguards now. The people who predict stuff like this are doomsayers.

The best way to invest is to put your money in growth stock mutual funds that have good long-term track records. This is what I do. The stock market has averaged a growth rate of about 12% per year over the last 70+ years. That doesn't mean a solid growth curve of 12% each year is guaranteed. It means one year the market might grow 7%, the next year 10%, and the next year 19%. That comes out to 12% per year. Since you leave money in an investment for several years or even decades, odds are extremely high that you'll come out a winner!

Learn to invest the right way with a trusted investing professional in your town.

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"Dave , I don't understand all the gloom and doom predictions . My mutual fund is up 20 percent this year . The value of my house according to the county ad valorem tax is way up this year . Strange isn't it ? gary campbell" The reason there are so many "doom and gloomers" is that people are realizing America is teetering on the precipice of economic disaster. Or maybe we're already falling and we don't realize it. Enormous, unprecedented, unimaginable DEBT---federal debt, state debt, city debt, corporate debt, individual debt. And the debt hasn't been invested in a good infrastructure or new industries or any wealth-creation---it's been used to buy cheap STUFF. We have nothing to show for TRILLIONS of dollars of debt. Can we grow our way out of this? Is it likely?

Cindee February 26 2010 12:38 PM

After getting creamed by my mutual funds in 2008; I took some classes and have been learning how to trade equities and options. I'm not a "day trader", but I trade several times a month. I feel God has lead me to seek instruction and direction, and it has paid tremendous benefits, my wife and I are up about 28% since January of last year. If you're serious about learning to invest, it is not rocket science, but it does involve math and rules, and you have to take the emotion out of your choices, if you can't do that, stick with the mutual funds. Thanks Dave for you awesome ministry, my wife and I start FPU at a local church tonight! PG!

Mark February 21 2010 3:47 PM

Gary - Do you really think having your mutual go up 20% while the dollar declined 20+% is really a good deal? The dollar was worth 2.31155 Brazil Reals in Jan 09, and only 1.85877 reals in Dec 09. The dollar declined against many currencies like this. As the Fed keeps printing more and more money, the value of the dollar will decline further. Will you be happy when the dollar declines 50% and your mutual fund is up 50% - or will you just realize that the $50 toaster will now cost you $75. As this trend continues and the dollar declines further, it will cost more to buy raw materials on a global market. When a barrel of oil that now sells for $65 hits $97 per barrell - it will probably be because of the Feds printing excessive amounts of money. It takes time for most higher priced global goods to trickle into our market, but already it costs twice as much to fly to Europe than it did two years ago. I am gald you are optimistic about for mutual fund and home value - but don't be blind to the fact that the falling dollar problem created by the Feds is negating all or more than all of your gains.

James February 17 2010 10:21 AM

Kelly, Kelly, Kelly! That is why Dave does what he does and why you invest in insurance! You need to smarten up and not be defensive and closed minded. Dave's method works, plain and simple! Do it your way, none of us really care. While we live like no one else, you will be living like everyone else. Investing in insurance sounds like an oxymoron. Whatever! As for the mutual fund debate, I am a proponent of the passive model - I only use equity Index funds because they are cheap, have a solid track record, and I have done exceptionally well with them. Good luck to all who are on the road to financial freedom, God bless. God bless those like Kelly who still don't get it! The only thing I can think of is the Kelly is an insurance salesperson.

Carl February 08 2010 9:20 PM

Dave, huge fan, thanks for the insight. Can you give us some examples of solid Growth Stock mutual funds?

Jaco January 28 2010 8:36 AM

6 months of income-minimum-after out of school-either high school or college-in reserve-get a job-save-and get that six months of income in reserve-then you have some control of your own destiny-2. never buy anything on credit-except a house for living in or for renting out. 3. when you buy a house get one year of income in reserve as fast as possible.4. never-ever let your boss totally control you-if you feel you deserve a raise-ask him for one-if he says no-nicely show him your bank statement-explaining that you really like working for him but that you need to make more money and because of your savings can quit and find a job-you would be better off to have already found one lst. If you get through that and learn how to do it Then about time by know-if you have continued to save to buy your next house-to rent out--In other words get control of your own life first-then the world is yours-Do not keep up with the jones' forget credit-eat beans when you could eat steak-and then when you are 45 or sooner you can quit working for yourself or others and take care of your rentals-that is what i have done and they were all paid for before i turned 45--People will always need a place to live-and there are still major tax advantages vs other investments. It is not easy - but what is????

joseph barnes January 25 2010 9:41 PM

I invest most of our retirement fund in Mutual Funds. I have given up chasing returns. The hottest fund today will go down next year. Long term they all average out. This year I have diversified in Aronson's Lazy Portolio of Index Funds and our 403B's and IRA's have all gained back their losses from the last couple years. I'm sold and can sleep better at night again.

Steve Jeske January 23 2010 9:45 AM

Gold is a commodity. When the price of gold goes up, gold production goes up. I have friends in Alaska who reopened a gold claim that they didn't bother to work for 5 years when gold was low. Buying anything when the price is high is a recipe for losing your money. The time to buy gold was when the Dow was at 14,000 and nobody wanted gold. The time to buy stocks was last March, when everybody was jumping out of windows and dumping their stocks. If you want to bet against the dollar, buy international funds or resource funds.

Larry Caldwell January 13 2010 11:29 AM

The past two years should have taught us well that our markets are more controlled than ever by a select group. They can take it down whenever and by how much they want (2008) and they can gun it higher whenever and by how much they want (2009). Our markets are less and less, if at all, based on valuation, growth, or any other financial measure. The financial institutions own the world's debt, thus they control the world's wealth, thus they control the financial markets. Debtor is slave to the lender, I will no longer participate in anything the lender controls.

Chad Linn January 05 2010 9:11 PM

Dear All, Im from asia country. I think different people have different investment habit. The main concern is to set your investment goal rather than earning more. Every investment tools have their own features. Once we understand or manage to understand their features and the economy it will be helpful for us to choose the right tools for our life.

Leslie Chan January 01 2010 8:37 PM

dave i have a questions for you i have been looking into forex{currenciy exchange] and i would like to know what are you thougts about investing on that market is there any classes tht you would recommend or how to stsrt for beginers currently i have a forex practice account but everithing looks very dificult i need help w that i listen to you show all the time love it!!!

juan January 01 2010 12:25 PM

As for me, I'm buying Dividend Paying Whole Life Insurance and maximizing the MEC (created by the government...hmm? wonder why they did that?). And, I will NEVER payoff my home. Why would you if your money "lived" in a guaranteed world that could earn you more? Curious if you've ever thought why banks offer you a lower rate on a 15 year mortgage (recommended by Dave) than a 30 year mortgage? Do you think it's because they have your best interest at heart? If not, then maybe you should understand why they do it and maybe, just maybe, it's not in your best interest. Great question. I'd love to hear your answers to it.

Kelly December 30 2009 2:10 PM

I think whenever I get to the point of financial stability that I need to start investing, I'm going to buy mostly mutual funds, but also one brick of gold. I think a gold brick would be a fun prop / ice breaker to have around the house.

Mike in Delaware December 17 2009 2:35 PM

Hello Everyone, I read that Dave does not invest in or recommend exchange traded funds (ETF's). He goes onto to say they are a basket of individual stocks (which is true). However, mutual funds are a basket of stocks too that happen to have much higher fees and very little transparency. Is the reason Dave doesn't recommend them is because they simply haven't been around long enough? Thank you for helping me understand.

Rich December 16 2009 1:36 PM

I listen to a lot of talk radio, and every day I hear Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Mark Levin talk about how we should all go out and invest in gold right away, that the dollar is falling like a sack of bricks. I guess that since the gold companies they rave about are sponsoring their programs, so I suppose the hosts have to say nice things about them. I, for one, have one little tenth of an ounce of gold that I purchased for about $35.00 many years ago. I don't plan on getting a single scrap more until baby step 3 is out of the way.

Matt December 13 2009 1:06 AM

I am struck by the range of emotions surrounding the above discussions of stock market and gold returns - euphoria to "gloom and doom". Here are some facts - US stock market trailing returns (annualized) through yesterday (12/10/09) using the S&P 500 Index: 1 year +25.7% 3 years -5.8% 5 years +0.6% 10 years -0.6% The current decade has been called "The Lost Decade". Just remember, this decade started on the heels of one of the biggest stock market "bubbles" in history, followed two extraordinary decades of stock market performance(see below), and encompassed the two worst "bear" markets and the single worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930's. Is it over yet? For comparison purposes, here are approximate annualized total returns of the S&P 500 by decade: 90's +16% 80's +18% 70's +8% 60's +10% 50's +17% As for gold, Good Luck! It's always a roller coaster and may be about to take an exciting plunge. It is a myth that gold "maintains purchasing power".

Bud December 11 2009 12:13 PM

How exactly, can I find or find a financial adviser that can find growth stock mutual funds that have good long-term track records? Is there a search I can perform? It seems that the financial advisers talk about growth over time but are stuck on today's performances only when I ask them to find growth stock mutual fund that have at lease a 5, 10, or 15 year track record of 12% growth or more. I fully understand that the market might grow 7% one year, 10% the next, and 19% the next year following that, which averages to 12%. It seems the financial advisers cannot comprehend that concept.

Sean Wooten November 28 2009 11:23 AM

Dave , I don't understand all the gloom and doom predictions . My mutual fund is up 20 percent this year . The value of my house according to the county ad valorem tax is way up this year . Strange isn't it ?

gary campbell November 24 2009 5:00 AM

I too lost over half my investments. A huge amount for someone my age. It was all in mutual funds. I guess mutual funds are good, but i think some level of market direction should be minded - and maybe portfolio balancing could be assessed on a fixed time frame.

Matt November 21 2009 7:53 PM

I'm retired and lost half my IRA portfolio and cannot take another hit like we had this year. I'm considering taking $10K and investing in gold or silver for the short term.

randy November 18 2009 9:55 AM

It is always a bad idea to have your money invested 100% in anything. Gold should be used in a portfolio to retain value and purchasing power. It is a good idea to have some allocated as a percentage just in case our money becomes devalued.

Ryan November 02 2009 1:15 PM

Yes! I can imagine some of those companies closing for good. GM (government motors) has just asked for billions more dollars as they are in trouble again. We have never before had a President so determined to "transform" America into something like Cuba. I am not certain that the market will ever bounce back. Things ARE different than ever before. The Stock Market looks like its for suckers! Who is making the money: Goldman-Sachs. What a dirty rotten bunch inextricably in bed with the government - a government that is about to tax businesses and personal wealth right out of existence.

momcasmi October 30 2009 3:11 PM

Dear Dave, I teach Business and Computer Science at a community college and I try to stuff as much of what you teach in my students' heads. Just think, the grandparents of these students may not have ever stepped on a college campus - let alone graduated from one - but the grandparents have paid off their houses and saved to put the grand kids through school. These present day students will take economics classes and be "educated" yet graduate thousands of dollars in credit card debt, and may never see the day they will pay off their houses, let alone be able to buy one. So who really is educated?

Chas October 30 2009 1:59 PM

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